Contents
Ballon d’Or Predictions
At Sportmonks, we believe that performance should be the defining factor in determining the winner, and our Football API offers a unique, objective look at each candidate’s strengths. From goals to assists, defensive statistics and more advanced metrics such as expected goals (xG) and key passes, our data-driven approach provides a more transparent prediction for football’s highest individual honour.
According to Sportmonks data, Vinicius Júnior stands out as one of the top contenders for the 2024 Ballon d’Or. Not only has he excelled with 26 goals and 10 assists across all competitions (La Liga, Supercopa, Copa America and the UEFA Champions League), but he also consistently shone against Europe’s best teams. With their all-round midfield brilliance, Jude Bellingham and Rodri, the backbone of Manchester City’s Premier League season and Spain’s EURO2024 championship, make compelling cases. Let’s dive in.
Data-Driven Candidate Analysis
Who will win the Ballon d’Or 2024?
Vinicius Jr – Real Madrid’s Star Forward
– Key stats: 15 goals, 5 assists (La Liga), 3 goals (Super Copa), 6 goals, 5 assists (UEFA Champions League)
– Major trophies won: La Liga, Supercopa de España, UEFA Champions League
– Shout-out: Real Madrid’s overall top scorer across all competitions in the 2023/2024 season.
Vinicius Júnior has been exceptional in the 2023-24 season. Sportmonks data shows that he contributed 26 goals and 10 assists across La Liga, the Champions League, Copa America and other competitions. Beyond his impressive stats, Vinicius is a constant nightmare for defenders. In the UEFA Champions League, he completed 34 successful dribbles, maintained a passing accuracy of 79.2%, and achieved an average player rating of 7.9. His pivotal contributions helped Real Madrid secure their 15th Champions League title.
Jude Bellingham – The Future of Midfield
– Key stats: 23 goals, 8 assists, 72 key passes in La Liga and the Champions League.
– Major trophies won: La Liga, Supercopa de España, UEFA Champions League
– Shout-out: Real Madrid’s La Liga top scorer in the 2023/2024 season
The English midfielder has made an immediate impact since joining Real Madrid. Bellingham’s stats highlight his versatility— 23 goals, 8 assists, 72 key passes in La Liga and the Champions League. Sportmonks’ data also highlights his impressive performance across these competitions, showcasing a passing accuracy of 90.01% and an average player rating of 7.99.
His leadership and all-around play have made him a crucial figure for club and country. Although England’s performance in EURO 2024 was not spectacular, the nation reached the final, ultimately losing against Spain and another top contender: Rodrigo Hernández Cascante (Rodri).
Rodri – Manchester City’s Unsung Hero
– Key stats: 9 goals, 9 assists, 57 key passes, 26 interceptions in the English Premier League and EURO 2024 Germany.
– Major trophies won: English Premier League, UEFA Super Cup, Fifa Club World Cup, EURO 2024
– Shout-out: Rodri played in 63 matches for both club and country during the 2023/24 season, losing just one—the FA Cup final against Manchester United. Won EURO 2024 Player of the Tournament.
While forwards often dominate the Ballon d’Or rankings, Rodri’s influence on Manchester City’s Premier League title cannot be ignored. According to Sportmonks data, Rodri was key to City’s midfield dominance, registering a 92.47% pass completion rate, 25 interceptions, and 51 key passes. He also played a starring role in Spain’s EURO 2024 victory, where his defensive contributions were crucial in securing the title.
Outsiders: Dark Horses for the Ballon d’Or 2024
While much of the attention revolves around the leading contenders like Vinicius Junior, Rodri, and Jude Bellingham, a few dark horse candidates could make a surprise run for the Ballon d’Or based on their individual brilliance and key contributions this season. Players such as Toni Kroos, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine Yamal, Dani Carvajal, Nico Williams, and Kylian Mbappé might not be front-runners. Still, they possess the stats and impact to warrant consideration. Though these players may not top the current Ballon d’Or rankings, their contributions and Sportmonks-backed statistics make them worthy of consideration. Should they continue their stellar performances into 2024, any of these dark horses could emerge as serious contenders for football’s most acclaimed individual prize.
Toni Kroos – The Midfield Maestro
At 34, Toni Kroos performed at an elite level in his last season as a professional footballer for Real Madrid, providing the metronomic control that drives their midfield. Sportmonks data highlights his passing accuracy at an astonishing 95%, with a total of 87 key passes in La Liga and the Champions League. Kroos may not grab headlines with goals or assists (1 goal and 10 assists last season), but his ability to control the tempo and dictate play makes him a vital player in Madrid’s success. His leadership, experience, and steady hand in pivotal moments still make him an outside bet for the Ballon d’Or. Can he pick a final individual trophy in his last season ever?
Lautaro Martínez – Inter Milan’s Goal Machine
Leading Inter Milan to the Serie A Championship and Argentina to the Copa America, Lautaro Martínez enjoyed a prolific 2023-24 campaign. He registered 29 goals in the Serie A and 3 assists in the Serie A and Copa America. His ability to rise to the occasion in critical matches, such as his crucial goal in the Copa America final, demonstrates his big-game pedigree. While forwards like Vinicius Júnior and Mbappé dominate the conversation, Martínez’s consistency and clinical finishing make him a legitimate outsider for the award.
Dani Carvajal – The Defensive Dynamo
Often overlooked in Ballon d’Or conversations due to his defensive role, Dani Carvajal has quietly been one of Real Madrid’s most consistent performers. This season, Sportmonks data shows Carvajal with an average passing accuracy of 86.96, 6 goals and 4 assists across the Champions League, La Liga and EURO 2024 – excellent numbers for a full-back. His relentless work ethic, defensive solidity, and attacking contributions make him an indispensable part of Madrid’s Champions League and La Liga campaigns and a key player for Spain in their EURO 2024 victory. Historically, defenders rarely win the Ballon d’Or, but Carvajal’s performances, particularly in high-stakes matches, shouldn’t be dismissed.
Nico Williams – Athletic Bilbao’s Rising Star
Nico Williams has emerged as one of La Liga’s most exciting young talents, and his performances for Athletic Bilbao have caught the eye of many top clubs across Europe. In the 2023-24 season, Williams recorded 7 goals and 12 assists in the La Liga and EURO 2024. His ability to beat defenders with pace and skill, coupled with his growing importance in Bilbao’s attack, positions him as a potential surprise candidate. If Williams can maintain his form and continue to develop, he could force his way into future Ballon d’Or conversations.
Kylian Mbappé – The Versatile Superstar
Although Kylian Mbappé is no stranger to Ballon d’Or shortlists, his 2023-24 season has been more challenging, particularly with Paris Saint-Germain’s inconsistent form. Despite this, Sportmonks data still highlights his extraordinary contribution: 36 goals and 8 assists in Ligue 1, EURO 2024 and the Champions League. While the 2024 Ballon d’Or competition is fierce, Mbappé’s individual brilliance and potential match-winning performances ensure he remains in the mix.
Lamine Yamal – The Wonderkid
At just 17, Lamine Yamal has taken La Liga by storm, and his performances at the European Championships with Spain made him a rising star to watch. Yamal’s 6 goals and 11 assists for Barcelona and Spain might seem modest compared to the more seasoned stars, but his impact per 90 minutes stands out. We think he won’t win this year’s award, but we are confident if he keeps up this form, he will win a future Ballon d’Or.
Strength of Opposition
Performing against top-tier opposition is what separates great players from legends. Sportmonks data shows Vinicius Júnior’s superior performances in matches against Europe’s elite clubs. He has played a pivotal role in Real Madrid’s La Liga and Champions League victories.
Jude Bellingham’s performances in high-stakes matches, such as Real Madrid’s El Clásico clash with Barcelona, further solidify his case. Meanwhile, Rodri’s midfield presence in matches against Germany and Liverpool shows he thrives in pressure situations. Not to mention, Rodri also won the EURO 2024 Player of the tournament and played a crucial role in the EURO 2024.
Advanced Metrics and Analytics
While goals and assists are important, advanced metrics provide deeper insights into players’ contributions. Sportmonks data highlights Vinicius Júnior’s xG of 1.81 in the El Classico on 21 April 2024 (3-1 victory for Real Madrid), which indicates that his finishing is elite. Additionally, his 0.43 expected goals on target in the CL final demonstrate his top performance on the highest stage.
Jude Bellingham’s box-to-box contributions are evident through metrics like goals, assists, tackles, interceptions passed, and pass completion rate. These numbers show that Bellingham is not just a scorer but also a playmaker and workhorse in the midfield.
Rodri’s passing accuracy and ability to dominate the field highlights his role in Manchester City’s attacking transitions, further enhancing his Ballon d’Or candidacy.
Impact on Team Success
The true measure of a Ballon d’Or contender lies in how much they contribute to their team’s success. Vinicius Júnior was instrumental in Real Madrid’s triumphs in the Champions League and La Liga.
Rodri’s influence on Manchester City’s Premier League title was immense. What stands out more is his influence on Spain’s EURO 2024 campaign. Rodri played in 63 matches for both club and country during the 2023/24 season, losing just one—the FA Cup final against Manchester United.
Jude Bellingham’s contributions in La Liga, both in attack and defence, have secured last-minute victories for Real Madrid.
Historical Comparison
When comparing current candidates to past Ballon d’Or winners, interesting parallels emerge. For instance, Vinicius Júnior’s dribbling stats and goals mirror those of 2019 winner Lionel Messi, while Jude Bellingham’s work rate and dual-threat role in midfield recall Luka Modric’s 2018 winning season. Rodri’s importance to Manchester City echoes Xavi’s role in Barcelona’s dominance, yet it remains to be seen if defensive midfielders can finally claim their place among Ballon d’Or winners.
Final Prediction
As we approach the highly anticipated 2024 Ballon d’Or announcement, Sportmonks believes Rodri emerges as the top contender. His exceptional contributions to Manchester City and the Spanish national team have solidified his status as an unsung hero in football.
With a remarkable pass completion rate of 92.47%, he has controlled the midfield and facilitated attacking transitions with precision. His defensive contributions, including 26 interceptions and 57 key passes across competitions, highlight his overall effectiveness.
Moreover, Rodri’s performance during Spain’s EURO 2024 campaign was instrumental in their triumph. His ability to thrive under pressure and dominate crucial matches showcases his importance on the international stage, earning him the Player of the Tournament award.
While Vinicius Júnior’s goal-scoring prowess and Jude Bellingham’s midfield brilliance make them formidable candidates, Rodri’s unique combination of defensive solidity and playmaking skills positions him as a deserving winner. As we weigh performance metrics, historical context, and impact on team success, it’s clear that Rodri’s contributions resonate profoundly in the current football landscape.
In conclusion, based on Sportmonks data and analysis, we predict Rodri will take home the 2024 Ballon d’Or, marking a significant moment for defensive midfielders and redefining the criteria for football’s most prestigious individual award.
