Bundesliga Predictions: Who is the favourite to become Bundesliga champions based on sportmonks data?

HOW SPORTMONKS USES DATA TO IDENTIFY BUNDESLIGA CONTENDERS

Sportmonks analyzes a wide array of factors to pinpoint the top contenders for the Bundesliga title. Our platform continuously processes real-time data, including;

1. Possession stats,
2. Shots on target,
3. Pass completion rates,
4. Player performance metrics,
5. Expected goals (xG), and
6. The Pressure Index to provide dynamic updates throughout the season.

You might ask yourself, what are Expected Goals (xG)? xG provides a better understanding of goal-scoring opportunities. It quantifies the how likely a shot will result result in a goal, taking into account factors like distance to the goal, angle, shot type (e.g., header, foot), and defensive pressure.

A higher xG value indicates a higher probability of scoring. Sportmonks uses xG to evaluate not just how many goals a team scores, but the quality of their chances, helping to identify teams that are consistently creating dangerous opportunities and those that might be over or underperforming based on the chances they create.

In addition to these features, head-to-head records and individual player influence are also factored into our Bundesliga predictions to deliver a more comprehensive and well rounded analysis.

Explore our detailed documentation to learn more.

Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart (2-0)

Mainz showcased a defensive masterclass, securing a clean sheet against a formidable Stuttgart side.

It was a match where Mainz were dominated as they recorded only 5 shots and  43% of the ball, but created better chances with an xG of 1.54 to Stuttgart’s 0.93.

This victory was crucial in demonstrating Mainz’s capability for an upset, effectively neutralizing Stuttgart’s offensive plays with a well-organized defense and strengthened their grip on a European spot.

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1-1)

This top-of-the-table clash at the Allianz Arena resulted in a thrilling draw. Despite Bayern’s dominance in possession (69% possession according to our data), Leverkusen matched them with resilience and effective counter-attacks, and took the lead in the game with 1 of their 2 shots on target.

Bayern applied pressure and pegged back the score line 6 minutes from halftime through Aleksandar Pavlovic equalizer to set up an exciting second half.

Despite Bayern’s second half pressure and 18 shots total, they couldn’t find a winner and settled for a draw which kept the title race competitive.

TEAMS COMPETING FOR EUROPE

While the teams above are the more likely to win, and the gap seemingly a bit insurmountable , it is worth noting some teams that may well push the ones above them, or at least make it uncomfortable with a couple of wins or drop in form of the fore-runners.

1. VfB Stuttgart: Stuttgart have been steadily climbing the table and are currently sitting in 4th place. Their solid defense and efficient attack have been key to their success. With Ermedin Demirovic and Deniz Undav leading the line, Stuttgart are a stronger contender for a Champions League spot.
2. RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig have been a consistent force in the Bundesliga in recent years, and this season is no different. They currently occupy 5th position and are known for their high-energy pressing and quick transitions, making them a difficult opponent for any team. With Benjamin Sesko leading the attack and Loïs Openda pulling the strings in midfield, Leipzig are gunning for the throats of anyone else competing for Europe.
3. FSV Mainz 05: Mainz have been one of the surprise packages of the season, exceeding expectations with their strong performances. They currently sit in 6th place, and their disciplined defense and efficient attack have allowed them to climb the table and challenge for a European spot. If they can maintain their momentum, Mainz will be a dark horse to watch out for.
4. VfL Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg, although not mentioned in the top spots, have shown potential to disrupt the standings. Known for their tactical discipline under their current management, they could capitalize on any slip-ups from the teams above them in the race for European spots. Their recent performances indicate they might be gearing up for a late push especially in the Europa league.
5. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Mönchengladbach have had a mixed season (with only 2 wins from the last 5) but are never to be underestimated. With a dynamic squad and a history of challenging for higher positions, they could make a significant impact if they find consistency. Their ability to compete in crucial matches with stronger opposition could see them leapfrog into contention for European football.