La Liga Predictions: Who will win La Liga 2024/25 based on Sportmonks Football Data?

How we use data to separate contenders from pretenders

At Sportmonks, we consider a host of factors, including team form, recent results, key player statistics, squad depth, games remaining, and H2H, among several others, to select genuine La Liga contenders. Individual brilliance is also a factor considered in our models. Take, for example, the impact of a player such as Robert Lewandowski, who at this moment has a 33% contribution to Barcelona’s 60-goal tally, having scored 18 goals while creating two more as at Match Week 22.

Why are Sportmonks’ Predictions Ahead of the Game?

Our predictive models are also innovatively designed to adopt cutting-edge technology in collaboration with AI and machine learning for more accurate results. Taking a look at the contribution of key players in the overall outcome of a game, our platform can provide better, more accurate models. A player’s recent form, squad position per game, and overall contribution to team performance are some of the key factors considered by our model. Take, for instance, Jude Bellingham’s arrival at Real Madrid, where he played in an advanced role as a false nine for the 2023/24 season. The Englishman scored 19 La Liga goals (0.64 G/G) in 28 appearances while creating 6 assists along the way.

However, comparing that with 7 goals in 17 games in the current La Liga season, 2024/25, where he has been deployed in a midfield role, leaves us with a much lower average of 0.42 G/G.
This illustration is just one of the facets of our innovative predictive model. One that empowers users in making more informed predictions, whether they’re betting, deciding on what players to choose in a fantasy league, or while writing for the media. With Sportmonks’ table-topping stats, you will always be a step ahead of the competition.

Navigating the maze of Predictions

While it is relatively easy to know the contenders in La Liga, pointing out the exact winner could be tricky considering factors such as form as the season unravels.

However, with Sportmonks, it becomes easy as we analyse massive volumes of data. We shall explore some of the matches between the heavyweights to see how our Prediction API performed.

Real Valladolid vs Real Madrid (0-3)

According to our prediction API, the home team had only a 13.4% chance of picking up a win for this Match Week 21 clash, while Real Madrid had a 65% chance of an outright victory. The prediction of a draw between both sides was 21.6%. Interestingly, our prediction model was correct, with the game ending in a 3-0 win for Real Madrid thanks to a hattrick from Kylian Mbappe. With 20 shots and 4 on target from Carlo Ancelotti’s side, Valladolid had no chance of earning a point on home turf despite making 6 attempts on goal with 2 shots OT.

Barcelona vs Alaves (1-0)

Before the game, our prediction model tipped Barcelona to win with a 71.3% chance of success, while an 11.7% chance for an Alaves’ victory was given. A draw was tipped at 17%. However, the game ended in a 1-0 win for Barcelona thanks to a goal from Robert Lewandowski. The Catalans dominated the game, having 71% of the ball possession, while Alaves were restricted to only 3 shots, with none on target. Once again, our prediction model was right, with a narrow victory for Barcelona keeping the bottom-placed side in the relegation zone.

Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid (1-2)

Before this blockbuster La Liga clash between Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, our prediction model handed the Catalans a 44.1% chance of an outright victory, while Atlético Madrid had a 31.1% chance of a win. A draw between these two Spanish heavyweights was tipped at 24.8% by our prediction model. However, with the game ending as a 2-1 win for Atlético Madrid, it goes without saying that our prediction model got this one wrong despite in-match stats which would have otherwise suggested a win for Barcelona, who had all the numbers that mattered in their favour.

Girona vs Real Madrid (0-3)

Girona were swept aside by Madrid in a 3-0 loss in this December 7 meeting at the Montilivi. Before the fixture, our prediction model had given Real Madrid a 45.3% chance of picking up a win, while the home side, Girona, had a 30.4% chance of claiming a home victory over the Whites. Despite giving a good account of themselves, with a sizeable ball possession of 41% and 10 shots with 4 on target, Girona failed to trouble Carlo Ancelotti’s side, who relied more on quality. Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler and Kylian Mbappé all placed their names on the scoresheet. Once again, our prediction model was correct!

Harnessing actionable insights

Actionable insights remain our core focus at Sportmonks, where we transform raw data into decision-making statistics by considering several factors such as squad depth, the likelihood of victories in upcoming fixtures, and league history.

Our advanced algorithms provide real-time updates on key players like Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) and Vinicius Jnr (Real Madrid), keeping users informed about any dips in form or player unavailability. Our model considers specific key player metrics to track possible influence on the outcome of the fixture.

Taking a look at a practical example on a key player such as Lamine Yamal, who at the time of this writing has a 25% goal contribution to Barcelona’s tally of 59 goals after 21 matches.
The Spaniard has played a total of 18 games where he scored 5 goals and made 10 assists prior to Match Day 22. On the 7th of November 2024, the 17-year-old suffered an ankle injury and remained ruled out up until November 29.

Following his ankle injury, Barcelona’s subsequent La Liga game against Real Sociedad ended in a 1-0 loss on November 10. In the next game that followed, Barcelona were only able to pick up a 2-2 draw against Celta Vigo on Nov 23.

Lamine Yamal’s first La Liga game following his return on November 30, against Las Palmas, ended in a 2-1 loss, having come off the bench in the 46th minute.

In the next La Liga game where he got in from the get-go, Barcelona swept RCD Mallorca aside in a 5-1 win on December 3, having created an assist for Raphinha’s second goal in the 74th minute.

Barcelona had won all three La Liga games [WWW] before his injury: 5-1 vs. Sevilla, 4-0 vs. Real Madrid, and 3-1 vs. Espanyol, while they failed to win any of the next three before his return to the starting XI [LDL]. While his weighty absence was surely felt by Barcelona, his unavailability was accounted for in our predictive model, which automatically adjusted Barca’s chances of winning due to a key player’s injury.

Real-Time adjustments of player performances?

While that would be a dream feature, at the moment we are yet to offer real-time adjustments on predictions. However, our pre-match analysis incorporates real-time updates on decisive events such as injuries, red cards, and overall statistics, right before kickoff. In addition, we have an all-round approach to our predictions, which factors not only goal scorers but also the defensive wall, including goalkeepers and the midfield department.

How about the bench?

Substitutions have altered the outcome of many games in the past. Take for instance, Ferran Torres, who came off the bench as a substitute, scored a goal and provided an assist in just 17 minutes in Barcelona’s 7-0 win over Valladolid back in mid-August (2024).

As you can see, not only the starting XI is considered, but also the strength of the bench.

Our dynamic model is capable of factoring the strength of such overlooked factors in its prediction model.

Who is the current favourite to win the 2024/25 La Liga title?

Based on current statistical data, Sportmonks identifies the likely contenders for the 24/25 La Liga title, considering factors such as player form, fixture statistics, team statistics, player statistics, recent results, and tactical data.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid are the favourites to win the title, having won the domestic title three times in the last five seasons, with Atlético Madrid and Barcelona winning one title each in that run. Despite the embarrassing 4-0 loss to Barcelona earlier in the season, the Whites remain favourites to win the title, although they recently suffered a setback in a defeat to Espanyol. Considering squad depth, coupled with their form, player quality, and several mentioned factors, Real Madrid sits at the top of our charts to win the La Liga title. After a difficult start, Kylian Mbappe’s explosive form has now left him as the second-highest goal scorer with 15 goals, three shy of Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski. With goals not a problem, coupled with Madrid’s much better backline, their chances of emerging as title winners rank higher than any other side.

Atlético Madrid

It comes as a surprise that Atlético are giving city rivals, Real Madrid, a run for their money. The Mattress Makers are in scintillating form and are just one point behind league leaders Real Madrid after 22 games played, having splashed the cash in the summer transfer window.

Barcelona

Barcelona are third favourites to win the La Liga title (2024/25). Despite having the league’s top scorer, Lewandowski (18 goals), in their ranks, the Catalans have failed to reach lofty heights consistently throughout the season. As we pointed out before, Barcelona are heavily reliant upon Lamine Yamal’s availability to see out victories. While they can pick up victories without the 17-year-old, the Catatans’ chances of an outright win are slightly higher with his availability.

Dark Horses To Win La Liga

Athletic Club

Athletic Club are closely following the top three and could turn out to be surprise winners of the competition should things turn out right for them through the remaining games. Dodi Lukébakio is in remarkable form, one that could influence the club’s chances of going all the way to reach for the title.

Villarreal

Villarreal are also following the top four closely, and recent improvement in form has seen them flourish. Their chances are rather slim, but if the favourites fall short, the Yellow Submarine could just be around the corner to take advantage of the situation.