Manchester City vs Liverpool Predictions with Sportmonks data

Predicting the Premier League Showdown with Advanced Data

Although this fixture isn’t as important as it has been in recent years because of how poorly City are performing this season by their standards, it is still a clash filled with drama and top tier football.

With Sportmonks data, we can break down this rivalry in detail—analysing player performances, tactical setups, and key moments.

Using this data-driven approach, we’ll view crucial areas for both teams, offering insightful predictions and a detailed preview of this highly-anticipated matchup.

Liverpool: A Data-Driven Preview

Team Form and Momentum

Liverpool’s form leading up to this match is quite impressive, having secured 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five Premier League games. They’ve notched up 11 goals while only conceding 4, which underscores their current attacking flair combined with a solid defensive foundation. This recent performance has earned them 11 points from a possible 15, and the current league standings show that they’re on top of the league. They have lost only 1 game all season (5 months and 5 days ago so far).

Key Player Performance

1. Mohamed Salah has been in scintillating form this current season, bagging 21 goals and 13 assists in 23 games. His xG stands at a notable 14.32xG, his goals per match ratio is 0.91 g/m and his goal contribution statistics at a staggering 1.47 contributions per match . This demonstrates his ability to not just score goals but to create and complement his team mates very well. All this data can be easily obtained from our Football API.
2. Cody Gakpo has seen his role promoted to more of a starter and often alternates between LWF and CF. Cody has had a good season so far, notching 8 goals and 3 assists in 23 games( 8 of which he had to come off the bench), and has already equaled his highest goal tally in a Liverpool shirt in 12 less games played.

Attacking Potency
According to Sportmonks’ Football API, Liverpool have registered a combined 54.79 xG this season, leading to 56 goals—comfortably outperforming expectations. Our API data also reveals key insights, such as their 2.66 goals per game average and their consistency in scoring, having found the net in 92.11% of their matches. The data further highlights a well-balanced goal distribution, with Liverpool scoring across all phases of the game: 7.14% in the opening 15 minutes, 10.71% from 15-30, 25% from 30-45 minutes, 14.29 % from 45-60 minutes, 21.43% from 60-75 minutes, and 21.43% in the closing stages (75-90 minutes).

Game Control
When they aren’t constantly laying siege to their opponents’ goal, they have shown that they can hold the ball quite well, averaging 58.1% of the ball. They also average around 531.7 passes a match, have a pass accuracy of 86% and have over 12,000 passes under their belt.

Defensive Approach
For a team so potent in attack, they are no slouches when it comes to getting back quickly into defensive shape to thwart an attacking threat. They have the best defence in the league, having only conceded 21 times (0.9 goals conceded per game). They also have the joint highest clean sheets in the league this season (tied with Nottingham for 10), have blocked over 100 shots and made only 3 errors leading to goals.

Tactical Approach
Under Jürgen Klopp’s successor, Arne Slot, Liverpool has continued with a high-pressing system that Klopp brought to the team as they attempt to win the ball back in the opponent’s half with a pressing success rate often above the league average. Their approach also involves quick transitions, utilizing the width provided by full-back like Alexander-Arnold, and leveraging Salah’s pace and movement in counter-attacks.

Manchester City: A Data-Driven Preview

Team Form and Momentum
Manchester City’s form has been less consistent this season, managing 3 wins, 1 draw, and a heavy loss to Arsenal in their last five Premier League matches. They’ve scored 16 goals while conceding 9, reflecting a team that can still produce moments of brilliance but has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in defense, largely due to the absence of key defensive figures like Ruben Dias and Rodri. This has translated to 10 points from a possible 15. At this point last season, they had 53 points, 12 better than they do now, indicating a decline in performance and results.

Key Player Performance

1. While he hasn’t been at his best, due to factors like poor defence and lack of supply, Erling Haaland is still a productive performer, with 19 goals and 2 assists in 24 games (2nd in the league). His goals per match ratio of 0.79 g/m and a goal contribution of 0.875 per match.
   Phil Foden didn’t have the smoothest of starts this season, but has seemingly stabilized and found his rhythm. In his last 5 matches, he has recorded 6 goals and an assist to help city claim 10 points.
2. Joško Gvardiol is perhaps an unsung hero for City this season. His 5 goals have been crucial for City and the timing of those goals have made them more significant as well. For instance, he scored the go ahead goal against the Magpies in their draw, the equalizer against Wolves, the go ahead against United (albeit losing that one) and the equalizer against Chelsea. In addition to his attacking contributions, he has also been solid defensively, winning over 60% of his duels and completing his passes over 90% of the time, leading to less turnovers or errors leading to goals.

Attacking Potency
Man City have had a combined 44.65 xG so far this season, which has led them scoring 48 goals and mildly outperforming their xG, and also hinting at a bit of wastefulness on their part. They have averaged 2.00 goals per game, shot 402 times, 145 of those being on target and giving them a 36% shot accuracy. They have also created 61 big chances.

Game Control
Despite being very prone to the counter, turnovers and conceding, City still have the identity of a Pep Guardiola team, in that they still keep the ball well with an average of 61% have shown that they can hold the ball quite well. They also average around  593.58 passes a match, have a pass accuracy of 90% and have over 14,000 passes so far this season.

Defensive Approach
City’s defence has been the main source of their woes this season as they’ve struggled to fill Rodri’s void who anchored their defensive midfield, and with his absence due to an ACL injury brought instability playing out from the back and transitioning from the middle of the park. They’ve also had a lot of injury problems with players Ederson, their main goal keeper playing only 15 matches this season so far. With all these changes, City have had to improvise and alternate between a 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 and a 3-2-4-1 approach, fielding players like Kovacic and Gundogan in a double pivot to help patch up the defence.

Their defence has been leaky so far, conceding 35 goals in 24 matches (1.46 gc/m). These stats become a truer reflection as they have only 5 clean sheets this season.

Tactical Approach
Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City has continued to employ a possession-based, high-pressing game, aiming to dominate games from start to finish. Their approach involves intricate passing patterns, often involving players like Bernardo Silva and Kovacic in midfield to control the tempo. City’s strategy includes overloading one side of the pitch to create space on the other, with wingers like Foden or Jeremy Doku crucial in the final third to either score or get the ball to Haaland in dangerous positions.

How Form and Fitness Drive Match Outcomes

Form and fitness are pivotal in determining match outcomes, especially in a high-profile clash like Manchester City vs. Liverpool. Sportmonks data offers insights into how current player form and fitness could shape the game.

Liverpool’s Form and Fitness

1. Form: Liverpool’s season has been marked by a strong finish, particularly in their last 10 Premier League games where they’ve achieved 8 wins and 2 draws. This current form has propelled them to an unbeaten streak of 10 matches, showcasing a team peaking at the optimal time. Their ability to score has been consistent, with 30 goals in these matches, averaging 3 goals per game, alongside a robust defense conceding just 13 goals.
2. Key players in form: Mohamed Salah has been instrumental, with 10 goals in his last 10 appearances, demonstrating efficiency with his shots on target. His assist rate has also been impressive, contributing 5 assists in this period.
3. Fitness and injuries: Liverpool’s have dealt with player injuries throughout the season with Alison, Luiz Diaz, Konate, MacAllister and Szoboszlai all joining the injury list at some point or the other , most of which have returned to bolster their team. A notable return has been Jota who has already contributed some vital goals since his return including his equalizer against Nottingham, adding significant depth. However, some fresh news has sidelined Trent Alexander Arnold for a few weeks with a muscle injury.

Manchester City’s Form and Fitness

1. Form: Manchester City’s campaign has seen fluctuations, particularly in their last 10 games with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Their defensive record has been less convincing, conceding 16 goals in these matches, which show vulnerabilities especially without key defensive figures.
2. Key players in form: Erling Haaland, despite being the league’s second top scorer with 19 goals, has seen his goals per game ratio dip to 0.79 for the season, against last season where he had over a goal a game by this time. This has largely been caused by a decrease in service quality as he sometimes has no touches of the ball for several minutes and is left isolated at the top.
3. Fitness and injuries: City has been hit hard by injuries, notably in defense and midfield. Rodri has been a significant miss when absent, with City’s win rate dropping notably without him. Ruben Dias has also struggled with fitness, impacting the team’s backline stability. His absence has seen City concede more goals in matches he’s missed, compared to when he plays. Kevin Debruyne has also struggled to stay fit, and City’s attack has suffered for it as he is a viable creator when on the pitch. Another key City player is Ederson, who while is a goal keeper, is known for his pinpoint accuracy and distribution which often propels a quick transition attack.

How Arne Slot and Guardiola’s Tactical Systems Shape the Match

The tactical duel between Arne Slot and Pep Guardiola will be central to the outcome of the Liverpool vs. Manchester City clash. Both managers deploy complex systems that could dictate the match’s flow. Here’s how Sportmonks’ data illuminates these tactical battles:

Possession and Build-up

City hold 61.2% of the ball on average, contrasting with Liverpool’s 58.1%, indicating City’s better ability in keeping the ball and preferring a possession based game. On the other hand, Liverpool average more interceptions per game (7.7) than City (5.88) which hints that Liverpool could potentially disrupt City’s free flowing possession football and mount counters.

Vulnerabilities

1. City’s midfield: Without Rodri, City’s midfield press has been less effective, with opponents completing more passes in dangerous areas and being able to win back possession in City’s half easier.
2. Liverpool’s highline: Liverpool’s often employ a highline strategy when in possessive attack which can leave them vulnerable to face paced attackers from the opposition.

Historical Tactical Insights

1. Formation changes: Guardiola has switched a 4-2-3-1 against Liverpool, to provide defensive cover with 2 holding midfielders, while still having multiple wingers on the field to attack Liverpool’s overlapping fullbacks.
2. In-game adjustments: Slot’s use of fresh legs from the bench, like Jota and Darwin Nunez, has shifted momentum, contributing to over 3 goals in the last 5 games.

Predicting the Outcome: What the Data Suggests

By analyzing the form, fitness, tactics, and key players for both Manchester City and Liverpool like Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland and Mohammed Salah, we can now turn to the question on everyone’s mind: who is likely to win? While football is a game of surprises, Sportmonks data can offer valuable insights and probabilities based on current trends and statistics.

Our Predictive Model’s Assessment of the Victor

Based on our analysis of Sportmonks data which can be gotten via our Prediction API, our predictive model suggests that Liverpool have approximately a 26.59% chance to win the match.  City on the other hand has 50.29% of walking away with a victory. The least likely outcome of the match is a draw as our model predicts that it has a 23.12% chance.

The model takes into account a wide range of factors, including recent form, head-to-head records, player availability, tactical trends, and various performance metrics. It calculates the probability of each outcome (win, loss, or draw) based on these data points.

Other Potential Outcomes

Beyond the likely winner, Sportmonks data can also offer insights into other potential match outcomes such as

1. Goals scored: Our model suggests that this match is likely to be an affair with a flurry of goals with the odds of at least 2 goals at 85%, 3 goals at 65% and even 4 goals at 42%
2. Both teams to score: Given the attacking talent on display, it’s highly probable that both teams will find the back of the net. Sportmonks data predicts that the odds of this happening is at a strong 67%.