Serie A Predictions: Who is the favourite to become Serie A champions based on sportmonks data?

How Sportmonks identifies Serie A contenders with concrete Predictions Data

Sportmonks leverages a comprehensive array of data points accessible via our football api to identify which teams are likely to emerge as Serie A champions. This process involves real-time analysis of various metrics that are crucial in football.

1. We continuously process data on possession, which can illustrate a team’s control over matches. For instance, Napoli’s ability to maintain possession, even after significant player changes, indicates their tactical discipline and control. Similarly, Inter’s high possession stats reflect their strategy of dominating games through ball retention.
2. Shot accuracy and the number of shots on target are analyzed to gauge not just the volume of attacks but their quality.
3. Pass completion rates are another key metric, revealing how well teams can transition from defense to attack.
4. The concept of expected Goals (xG) has transformed how we view goal-scoring opportunities. Sportmonks dives deep into this statistic to understand which teams are creating the best chances, not just scoring the most goals. Inter’s high xG per game suggests they are not just scoring goals but creating high-quality chances, which is vital for sustained success in Serie A.
5. Beyond these, Sportmonks uses the pressure index, a useful metric that measures the intensity of matches by assessing how much pressure teams exert, through actions like tackles, ball recoveries, and high presses.
6. Head-to-head records and the influence of individual players are also factored in.

By weaving together these various strands of data, Sportmonks provides a dynamic picture of the Serie A title race. This approach not only predicts potential outcomes but also illuminates the tactical battles, individual brilliance, and strategic adjustments that define the league.

Making sense of the drama: Analysing key Serie A matches

Serie A is a league known for its tactical nuances, defensive resilience, and moments of individual brilliance. Let’s delve into some pivotal matches from this season to illustrate how Sportmonks’ data-driven approach can reveal the hidden stories behind the scores and empower you to make more informed predictions.

Serie A Predictions: Napoli vs Juventus (2-1)

This top-of-the-table clash saw Napoli overcome Juventus in a thrilling encounter. Despite Juventus taking the lead, Napoli’s clinical finishing and defensive resilience proved decisive and broke Juve’s 21 game unbeaten streak. Sportmonks’ prediction model had anticipated a 43% win chance for Napoli to Juve’s 29% and it was reflected in the final scoreline.

Serie A Predictions: Juventus vs. AC Milan (2-0)

Juventus showcased their defensive resilience, shutting down AC Milan’s attack while Mbangula and Weah delivered the decisive goals. Sportmonks’ analysis highlighted the game’s low-scoring nature, attributing it to the limited xG from both sides (just over 2.2xg), a testament to Juve’s disciplined defensive approach.

Serie A Predictions: Atalanta vs. Juventus (1-1)

This match was a display of tactical balance between two teams known for their strategic approaches. Atalanta managed to equalize after Juventus took the lead, with both teams showing resilience and tactical flexibility. Sportsmonk’s analysis of the game showed that Atalanta largely dominated with 60% of the ball, 6 shots on target may have been unlucky to leave with a draw.

Serie A Predictions: Inter Milan vs. Bologna (2-2)

Inter, despite their strong start, found Bologna a tough nut to crack in this encounter. Bologna took the lead early in the game and still came back from behind to grab a point, showing their resilience and tactical discipline. Goals from Denzel Dumfries and Lautaro Martinez were matched by Bologna’s Santi Castro and Emil Holm. Sportmonks’ analysis would have pointed out Bologna’s effectiveness in counter-attacks and their ability to exploit Inter’s defensive lapses, suggesting that while Inter dominated possession, Bologna’s defensive organization and quick transitions on the counter were key to securing a point.

Teams competing for European competitions and shaking up the title race

While the teams mentioned above are the current favorites for the Scudetto, several teams are not only vying for European spots but also have the potential to influence the title race by taking points off the main contenders and making the race even more exciting.

1. Lazio: Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio have been steadily improving and currently sit in fourth place. Their possession-based style and attacking flair, led by Valentín Castellanos and Mattia Zaccagni, make them an exciting team to watch. If they can maintain consistency and improve their defensive solidity, Lazio could be a surprise contender for a champions league spot. They have already shown they can compete with the best, having held Atalanta to a draw and defeated Napoli earlier this season.
2. Fiorentina: Fiorentina, currently sitting in 6th place, are also in the mix for Europa League qualification. Their recent victory over Lazio proves they can challenge the top teams. With Moise Kean leading the line, Fiorentina have the potential to disrupt the established order and secure a European spot.
3. Juventus: It may be strange to see Juve in this section and not as a league forerunner, but that is the state of things at the moment. Despite a mixed start to the season, Juventus are still a strong contender for international football. They currently occupy fifth place and still possess a talented squad with experienced players like Timothy Weah and Dusan Vlahovic. If they can find consistency and rediscover their winning mentality, Juventus could maintain or even climb up the table for a UEFA Champions League spot. Their recent victory over AC Milan showed they are still capable of beating the top teams.
4. AC Milan: AC Milan have been inconsistent this season, but they still have the potential to cause upsets and disrupt the title race. They currently sit in seventh place and have a talented squad, with players like Rafael Leão and Alvaro Moratta capable of producing moments of magic. If they can find their rhythm and string together a series of positive results, AC Milan could be a good team to watch out for.

The relegation battle: a fight for survival in Serie A

While the top of the Serie A table is a captivating battle for the Scudetto and European spots, the bottom of the table is a desperate fight for survival. Several teams are struggling to avoid relegation, and with the gap between these teams less than 10 points, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining their fate.

Here’s a closer look at the teams currently battling to avoid the drop:

1. Cagliari: Currently sitting in 15th place with 21 points, Cagliari are a point above the relegation zone. Their inconsistency has been a major concern, and their defense has been prone to errors, conceding 36 goals in 22 matches.
   Parma: Parma are also in a precarious position, occupying 16th place with 20 points. Their attack has struggled to find the back of the net, scoring only 28 goals in 22 matches. With a leaky defense and a lack of consistency, Parma’s chances of survival are hanging in the balance.
2. Hellas Verona: Verona are another team teetering on the brink of relegation, sitting in 17th place with 20 points. Their defense has been a major concern, conceding 48 goals in 22 matches, the most in the league. With a lack of goalscoring threat and a poor away record, Verona face a difficult task in their fight for survival.
3. Lecce: Lecce are currently in 18th place with 20 points. They sit in the first relegation spot and have let in an abysmal 40 goals in 22 matches. These next few weeks would tell how much fight they have in them to survive the drop.
4. Venezia: Currently sitting 19th of the table with 16 points, Venezia are in deep trouble. Their defense has been particularly porous, conceding 35 goals and only scoring 20. With a lack of firepower upfront, Venezia face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
5. Monza: Monza are also in a precarious position, occupying dead last with 13 points. Their attack has struggled to find the back of the net, scoring only 20 goals in 22 matches. With a leaky defense and a lack of consistency, Monza’s chances of survival are hanging in the balance.
6. Empoli: Empoli are currently in 14th place with 21 points, but they are not out of the woods yet. Their inconsistency has been a major concern, and they have struggled to find the back of the net, scoring only 21 goals in 22 matches.
   Como 1907: Como are currently in 13th place with 22 points, but they cannot afford to relax. Their defense has been a concern, conceding 36 goals in 22 matches.