Who is the favourite to win Ligue 1 24/25 based on Sportmonks data?

How Sportmonks uses data to identify Ligue 1 contenders

Sportmonks examines multiple factors—ranging from team form and recent results to individual player statistics and squad depth—to pinpoint the top contenders for the Ligue 1 title. Our platform processes real-time data, including possession stats, shots on target, successful passes, player performance metrics, expected goals (xG), and the innovative Pressure Index, offering dynamic updates throughout the season.

The Pressure Index deserves a closer look. This real-time metric measures the intensity of a match by evaluating how much pressure each team applies during the game. Tracking live stats like attacking moves, possession, shots on goal, tackles, and even cards calculates a dynamic score that reflects the influence of each action.

What makes the Pressure Index unique is its ability to compare the performances of both teams in real time. If scores remain low or equal, the teams are evenly matched at that moment. A rising score for one team indicates a period of dominance, revealing which side is seizing control of the game. To learn more about this metric, explore our detailed documentation.

In addition to these features, head-to-head records and individual player impact—such as Jonathan David’s offensive brilliance or Gianluigi Donnarumma’s reliability in goal—are integral to Sportmonks’ Ligue 1 predictions. By blending insights into individual talent and team dynamics, Sportmonks delivers a comprehensive model that supports more accurate football predictions.

Why Sportmonks’ Ligue 1 Predictions are ahead of the game

Sportmonks redefines football predictions with a cutting-edge combination of AI and machine learning, allowing continuous refinement of its Ligue 1 forecasts as fresh data becomes available. Unlike static models, our predictions evolve dynamically, factoring in key elements such as team form, player performance, and expected line-ups. This ensures users receive the most accurate and up-to-date insights throughout the Ligue 1 season.

A standout feature of Sportmonks is its focus on player-specific insights. Our platform doesn’t stop at team statistics but delves deeply into individual performances, analysing how pivotal players like Achraf Hakimi or Rayan Cherki impact their teams. By evaluating metrics such as recent form, positional influence, and overall contribution, the Player Contribution Model predicts a player’s role in determining match outcomes. This model even adapts to expected line-ups, providing nuanced insights into how each player’s presence or absence could shift a game’s dynamics.

This detailed analysis offers users a significant advantage when making predictions—whether for betting, fantasy leagues, or simply enjoying Ligue 1 as a fan. With Sportmonks, you’ll always have the edge over your friends, family, and competitors, staying ahead in the race to predict the season’s top performers and the ultimate champion.

Navigating the complexities of predicting Ligue 1 winners

Ligue 1 is renowned for its thrilling unpredictability, but Sportmonks makes navigating its complexities easier by analysing vast volumes of data. While intuition and experience often guide football enthusiasts, our platform reinforces these instincts with comprehensive data, offering users a reliable foundation for making informed predictions—especially in the critical stages of the season, where surprises are always around the corner.

Let’s examine some early-season matches to see how our Prediction API has performed. From identifying favourites in tightly contested fixtures to evaluating unexpected upsets, Sportmonks’ data-driven approach provides insights beyond the surface, helping users predict Ligue 1 outcomes with greater confidence.

Monaco – PSG (2-4)

In a thrilling Ligue 1 clash, PSG triumphed over Monaco with a 4-2 victory, showcasing their clinical finishing and superior ball control. Led by standout performances from Ousmane Dembélé, who netted twice, and Gonçalo Ramos, PSG dominated with 12 shots on target compared to Monaco’s five. Young talent Désiré Doué opened the scoring early, setting the tone for PSG’s relentless attack.

Despite Monaco’s spirited response, including a penalty from Eliesse Ben Seghir and a goal from Breel Embolo, the home side struggled to contend with PSG’s possession-heavy play. PSG commands 61% of the ball and completes 572 passes with an 86% accuracy rate.

Our prediction model had PSG as the favourites going into the match. The team delivered a statement win that further cemented its place at the top of Ligue 1. With dynamic performances like these, PSG continues to set the standard in French football.

Marseille – Lille (1-1)

Marseille and Lille played a hard-fought 1-1 draw in a match that highlighted both teams’ strengths and resilience. Quentin Merlin opened the scoring for Marseille in the 17th minute with a well-taken effort, giving the home side an early advantage. However, Lille struck back late, with Bafodé Diakité’s crucial equaliser in the 87th minute ensuring the spoils were shared.

Marseille controlled much of the game with 57% possession and completed 575 passes with an impressive 89% accuracy. Despite this dominance, Lille was more efficient in attack, registering five shots on target compared to Marseille’s three from a total of 10 shots. The game’s intensity peaked when Marseille’s Pol Lirola was sent off in injury time, forcing them to hold on for the draw in the final moments.

Sportmonks’ prediction model had anticipated a tightly contested match, and the result lived up to expectations. The draw reflects the evenly matched nature of these two sides, with both showing flashes of brilliance but ultimately unable to secure all three points.

Nice – Saint-Étienne (8-0)

On September 20, 2024, OGC Nice delivered a historic 8-0 victory over Saint-Étienne at the Allianz Riviera, marking one of the most lopsided results in Ligue 1 history. The match began with Dylan Batubinsika’s own goal in the 4th minute, setting the tone for Nice’s relentless offensive. Tanguy Ndombélé doubled the lead in the 7th minute, followed by goals from Marquinhos Cho (24’) and Youssoufa Moukoko (26’, 39’). Evann Guessand added another in the 36th minute, with Sofiane Diop (75’) and Pablo Rosario (86’) completing the rout.

Nice dominated possession with 59.4% and registered 12 shots on target compared to Saint-Étienne’s two. The visitors struggled to mount any significant challenge, and their defensive frailties were evident throughout the match. Saint-Étienne defender Léo Pétrot described the defeat as a “disgrace,” expressing deep embarrassment for the team’s performance and extending apologies to supporters.

This emphatic win coincided with celebrations for Nice’s 120th anniversary, making the occasion even more memorable for the home fans. Head coach Franck Haise highlighted the rarity of such victories, noting that “it’s not every day you win by such a margin.”

Angers – Olympique Lyonnais (0-3)

Lyon asserted their dominance over Angers in a convincing 3-0 victory. With 64.4% possession and 16 shots—10 on target—Lyon controlled the match from start to finish. Angers managed only 10 shots, with just 2 testing the Lyon goalkeeper.

Nicolás Tagliafico opened the scoring in the 26th minute, followed by Rayan Cherki’s strike in the 55th. Georges Mikautadze sealed the win with a late goal in the 88th minute.

Sportmonks’ prediction model had favoured Lyon, and they delivered with superior ball control, 447 completed passes, and a passing accuracy of 86%. Angers’ struggles in possession and attack left them unable to match Lyon’s clinical performance.

Turning data into action

At Sportmonks, we transform raw data into actionable insights by analysing critical factors such as squad depth, upcoming fixtures, and historical success in Ligue 1. Our advanced algorithms provide real-time updates on key players like Jonathan David (LOSC Lille), Aleksandr Golovin (AS Monaco), Adrien Rabiot (Olympique Marseille), and Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain), ensuring fans and analysts are kept informed of any dips in form, injuries, or tactical changes that could impact match outcomes. By continuously refining our predictions, Sportmonks helps users make smarter, data-driven decisions.

One of the most crucial aspects of our analysis is the Player Contribution Model. But what does it entail? This model evaluates individual players’ performances and their overall influence on team success. Metrics like recent form, position, and team contribution are combined with data on starting line-ups and formations, providing a holistic view of a player’s impact.

Take, for example, Jonathan David—a key figure for LOSC Lille and one of the league’s most reliable forwards. In the 2023/24 season, David was directly involved in 30 goals, making him a cornerstone of Lille’s attack. If David were to miss a series of critical fixtures due to injury, our model would immediately adjust Lille’s chances in upcoming matches, reflecting the diminished attacking threat. Similarly, the absence of Ousmane Dembélé’s creativity for PSG or Aleksandr Golovin’s playmaking for Monaco would be reflected in our predictions, altering expectations for their respective teams.

This real-time adaptability ensures that users have access to the most accurate and actionable insights, giving them a competitive edge. Whether you’re tracking Ligue 1 or preparing for other competitions, Sportmonks’ predictive models keep you ahead of the game.

How real-time adjustments of player performances shape Predictions in Ligue 1

At Sportmonks, our predictions are expertly crafted with a keen focus on player performances and their potential influence on match outcomes. While we do not provide live predictions during games, our pre-match analysis incorporates real-time updates on critical developments, such as injuries, suspensions, and essential statistics. This ensures users are equipped with the most accurate insights leading up to kick-off.

Consider players like Adrien Rabiot (Olympique de Marseille), Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, or Marquinhos (Paris Saint-Germain), renowned for their ability to dictate play and impact pivotal moments. If a player like Marquinhos were to pick up an injury shortly before a match, our prediction model would instantly reflect this, recalibrating the probabilities of Paris Saint-Germain’s success accordingly. These timely updates are invaluable, providing both fans and teams with vital insights into how individual performances can shape the game.

Our model goes beyond focusing solely on attacking flair. It evaluates the contributions of defensive stalwarts, such as Marquinhos, alongside emerging talents like Warren Zaïre-Emery and creative sparks like Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyonnais). By considering the collective influence of all players—whether they excel in defence, midfield, or attack—our predictions offer a comprehensive view of each team’s potential.

While our predictions remain static once the match begins, the dynamic pre-match updates allow us to refine success probabilities until the whistle blows continually. This approach ensures users receive the latest analysis, empowering them to make informed decisions. With Sportmonks, Ligue 1 enthusiasts can rely on precise and timely information to support their predictions and maximise their understanding of the game.

Understanding why the favourite might change mid-season

Unpredictability is part of football’s charm, and nowhere is this more evident than in Ligue 1. At Sportmonks, we embrace the ever-changing nature of the beautiful game by providing dynamic predictions that adapt throughout the season based on the latest results and player performances. Teams that start as favourites may lose momentum due to unexpected challenges, making it essential for fans and analysts to stay updated.

Consider players like Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyonnais) or Warren Zaïre-Emery (Paris Saint-Germain). If they experience a dip in form or are sidelined by injury, it can significantly affect their team’s ability to compete at the highest level. For instance, if Zaïre-Emery—known for his dynamic midfield presence—is unavailable, Paris Saint-Germain’s chances of retaining dominance could diminish. Our prediction model quickly reflects such changes, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your disposal.

Beyond individual performances, unforeseen tactical adjustments or shifts in team strategies can dramatically alter the season’s trajectory. An underdog side might find their rhythm and climb the table, while early favourites could falter due to inconsistency or injury troubles. These twists and turns make every match crucial, and our predictions adapt to capture the current state of play, offering you a real-time perspective on Ligue 1’s evolving narrative.

At Sportmonks, we empower users to stay ahead by delivering up-to-the-minute insights on which teams hold the edge at any given time. Whether you’re a devoted supporter or looking to make strategic decisions, our data-driven approach keeps you informed about the shifting fortunes of your favourite clubs. Experience the thrill of Ligue 1 like never before with Sportmonks—your guide to navigating the league’s dynamic landscape.

Who is the current favourite for the Ligue 1 title 24/25?

Sportmonks uses the latest data to pinpoint the leading contenders for the Ligue 1 title in the 24/25 season, factoring in elements such as player form, match statistics, team depth, recent results, and tactical trends. Teams with a well-rounded squad, such as Paris Saint-Germain, often have the resilience needed to endure the challenges of a demanding season. Moreover, clubs that have consistently performed in past campaigns are more likely to thrive under pressure.

Let’s dive into our analysis of the top favourites and potential dark horses poised to make a splash in the race for Ligue 1 supremacy.

Favourites to Win Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain
Despite Kylian Mbappe’s departure to Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain remains one of the strongest contenders for the Ligue 1 title. Their squad boasts exceptional depth, with standout performers like Marquinhos, Warren Zaïre-Emery, and the dynamic Ousmane Dembélé leading the charge. While their dominance is occasionally tested, PSG’s quality across all areas of the pitch ensures they remain a force to be reckoned with. With a favourable schedule ahead, they are well-positioned to regain momentum and solidify their place at the top of the table.

Olympique de Marseille
After an impressive start to the season, Roberto De Zerbi’s team has proven to be a serious contender. Key players like Adrien Rabiot, Mason Greenwood and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg have brought stability and creativity to their midfield, giving Marseille the edge in tightly contested matches. While their consistency has been commendable, they must maintain focus in tough fixtures. If they can sustain their form, Marseille has a genuine chance of breaking PSG’s recent dominance.

AS Monaco
Monaco continues to establish itself as a team to watch this season quietly. With a blend of experienced players and emerging talents, they’ve shown the ability to compete with the league’s best. Though they lack the star power of PSG or Marseille, their disciplined approach and tactical adaptability make them a formidable opponent. Should they capitalise on slip-ups by the top favourites, Monaco could mount a serious challenge for the title.

Outsiders for the title and European Tickets

The top three will receive tickets for the Champions League’s group stage. Number four will receive a ticket for the Champions League’s qualification stage. The fifth place will receive a ticket for the Europa League’s group stage. The sixth place will receive a ticket for the Europa Conference League’s qualification stage.

Olympique Lyonnais
Though off to a slower start than expected, Lyon remains a potential dark horse in this season’s title race. The creative brilliance of Rayan Cherki and their talented attacking unit provides a solid foundation for success. However, injuries and inconsistencies have hampered their early progress. If Lyon can find their rhythm and secure key results against their direct rivals, they could climb into contention as the season unfolds.

LOSC Lille
After a slow start, LOSC Lille has gone unbeaten in the Ligue 1 since September the thirteenth, when they had two losses in a row. With Jonathan David as the Ligue 1 top scorer, he has been an instrumental part of the goals that LOSC Lille have scored. With only 16 goals against them, they hold one of the most solid defences, even after the departure of Leny Yoro.

OGC Nice
OGC Nice has been riding on Evann Guessand’s coattails until now this season. Evan Guessand has not only scored the most goals for his team but also made the most assists so far in the season. With 31 goals in 16 matches, they are the third team to score the most goals.

RC Lens
RC Lens is currently in place seven, which places them just outside the tickets for European football. However, they are just three points behind OGC Nice in sixth place. With only 15 goals against in 16 games, they have the second-best defence in Ligue 1 behind Paris Saint-Germain. It is no surprise that their most valuable players are two central defenders, Kevin Danso and Facundo Medina, both valued at €25 million.

Toulouse FC
Toulouse FC is at the time of writing in the eighth position in the Ligue 1, with only three points behind OGC Nice. With a goal difference of 1, they are one of the eighth teams with a positive goal difference in the French League. Their top scorer this season is Zakaria Aboukhlal. Can he lead his team towards European football?